Table 1 Key input parameters of Markov model for lung cancer screening

Smoker-to-non-smoker relative risk of lung cancer (\(\:{\varvec{R}\varvec{R}}_{\varvec{s}\_\varvec{t}\varvec{o}\_\varvec{N}\varvec{S}}\))

[23]

Male

2.41(2.18–2.65)

Triangular(2.18, 2.41, 2.65)

Female

2.42(2.11–2.77)

Triangular(2.11, 2.42, 2.77)

FDR-related odds ratio of lung cancer incidence (\(\:{\varvec{O}\varvec{R}}_{\varvec{F}\varvec{D}\varvec{R}}\))

Meta-analysis

Male

1.88(1.01–3.49)

Triangular(1.01, 1.88, 3.49)

Female

2.27(1.77–2.91)

Triangular(1.77, 2.27, 2.91)

Transition Probabilities

[25]

Lung cancer stage I to stage II

0.3682 (± 50%)

Beta(9.33, 16.01)

Lung cancer stage I to stage III

0.0328(± 50%)

Beta(14.83, 437.29)

Lung cancer stage I to stage IV

0.0745(± 50%)

Beta(14.15, 175.75)

Lung cancer stage II to stage III

0.2260(± 50%)

Beta(11.67, 39.96)

Lung cancer stage II to stage IV

0.1510(± 50%)

Beta(12.89, 72.50)

Lung cancer stage III to stage IV

0.1455(± 50%)

Beta(12.98, 76.26)

Mortality

Lung cancer stage I to LC death

0.1739(± 50%)

Beta(12.52, 59.48)

[25]

Lung cancer stage II to LC death

0.2942(± 50%)

Beta(10.55, 25.31)

Lung cancer stage III to LC death

0.4626(± 50%)

Beta(7.79, 9.06)

Lung cancer stage IV to LC death

0.5880(± 50%)

Beta(5.74, 4.02)

After care I to death

0.089(± 50%)

Beta(13.91, 142.23)

[26]

After care II to death

0.153(± 50%)

Beta(12.86, 71.32)

After care III to death

0.288(± 50%)

Beta(10.65, 26.34)

After care IV to death

0.353(± 50%)

Beta(9.59, 17.60)

Performance of LDCT

Sensitivity of LDCT

0.981(0.884–0.999)

Triangular (0.884, 0.981, 0.999)

[28]

Specificity of LDCT

0.782(0.768–0.796)

Beta(2,643.78, 737.01)

Overdiagnosis rate when screening

0.031(± 50%)

Beta(14.86, 464.46)

The additional risk of LC per screening (1/100,000)

[29]

Male, aged 50–54

2.1(± 50%)

Triangular(1.05, 2.1, 3.15)

Male, aged 55–59

1.9(± 50%)

Triangular(0.95, 1.9, 2.85)

Male, aged 60–64

1.7(± 50%)

Triangular(0.85, 1.7, 2.55)

Male, aged \(\:\ge\:\)65

1.4(± 50%)

Triangular(0.7, 1.4, 2.1)

Female, aged 50–54

5.5(± 50%)

Triangular(2.75, 5.5, 8.25)

Female, aged 55–59

5.1(± 50%)

Triangular(2.55, 5.1, 7.65)

Female, aged 60–64

4.5(± 50%)

Triangular(2.25, 4.5, 6.75)

Female, aged \(\:\ge\:\)65

3.8(± 50%)

Triangular(1.9, 3.8, 5.7)

Adherence to LDCT screening

54.6% (75% and 100% were assumed in scenario analysis)

Diagnose rate through standard clinical care

[18]

Lung cancer stage I

2.46%(± 50%)

Beta(14.96, 593.32)

Lung cancer stage II

2.7%(± 50%)

Beta(14.91, 537.48)

Lung cancer stage III

51.8%(± 50%)

Beta(6.89, 6.41)

Lung cancer stage IV

65.8%(± 50%)

Beta(4.60, 2.39)

Cost (CNY)

LDCT test cost

239.97(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37, 0.06)

[19]

Biopsy diagnosis cost

1,202.9(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37, 0.01)

Treatment cost

[25]

Stage I

51,554.43(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37, 0.000298)

Stage II

80,568.43(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37, 0.000191)

Stage III

87,601.46(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37, 0.000175)

Stage IV

112,562.91(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37,0.000136)

Background medical treatment costs

5348.1(± 50%)

Gamma(15.37, 0.003)

[31]

Utility

Utility for general individuals, by sex and age

[32]

Male, aged 40–50

0.99(0.987–0.994)

Beta(4,355.01, 43.99)

Male, aged 51–60

0.984(0.980–0.988)

Beta(3,872.04, 62.96)

Male, aged 61–70

0.976(0.971–0.980)

Beta(3,514.87, 86.43)

Male, aged \(\:\ge\:\)71

0.947(0.936–0.958)

Beta(1,514.71, 84.77)

Female, aged 40–50

0.988(0.986–0.991)

Beta(11,257.88, 136.74)

Female, aged 51–60

0.982(0.979–0.986)

Beta(7,713.61, 141.39)

Female, aged 61–70

0.964(0.958–0.971)

Beta(3,480.26, 129.97)

Female, aged \(\:\ge\:\)71

0.936(0.926–0.946)

Beta(2,153.09, 147.22)

Utility of lung cancer by stage

[33], [34], [35]

Lung cancer stage I

0.85(0.78–0.89)

Beta(136.78, 24.14)

Lung cancer stage II

0.75(0.68–0.80)

Beta(149.31, 49.77)

Lung cancer stage III

0.69(0.56–0.79)

Beta(42.18, 18.95)

Lung cancer stage IV

0.69(0.38–0.70)

Beta(21.46, 9.64)

Disutility associated with a false-positive result

0.063(± 50%) for 3 months

Beta(14.33, 213.21)

[36]

Discount rate

5% (0-8%)

-

[38]