Table 2 Univariate and multivariate analysis for the association between BMI changes and the risk for all-cause mortality

BMI change

 <−10%

1,525

57 (3.7)

1.62 (1.24–2.10)

1.89 (1.45–2.46)

1.80 (1.38–2.35)

 <−5% to − 10%

6,197

206 (3.3)

1.43 (1.23–1.65)

1.36 (1.18–1.58)

1.31 (1.13–1.52)

 −5% to + 5%

63,233

1,517 (2.4)

1

1

1

 >+5% to < + 10%

14,103

220 (1.6)

0.68 (0.59–0.79)

0.97 (0.84–1.12)

0.94 (0.82–1.09)

 ≥+10%

5,200

84 (1.6)

0.73 (0.59–0.91)

1.42 (1.13–1.77)

1.35 (1.08–1.69)

BMI group (kg/m²) at the last health screening

 Normal (18.5–23.9)

51,457

985 (1.9)

1

1

 Underweight (< 18.5)

8020

105 (1.3)

0.68 (0.55–0.83)

1.56 (1.28–1.90)

1.57 (1.29–1.91)

 Overweight (24–26.9)

20,545

591 (2.9)

1.51 (1.36–1.67)

0.96 (0.87–1.07)

0.91 (0.82–1.02)

 Obese (≥ 27)

10,236

403 (3.9)

2.06 (1.83–2.31)

1.37 (1.22–1.54)

1.19 (1.06–1.34)

Clinical and demographic characteristics

Age, years

 18–49

43,983

263 (12.6)

1

 ≥50

46,275

1821 (87.4)

6.95 (6.10–7.91)

1.47 (1.14–1.89)

1.38 (1.07–1.78)

Birth cohort

 <1940

3201

719 (34.5)

1

1

1

 1940–1949

7276

486 (23.3)

0.29 (0.26–0.32)

0.29 (0.26–0.33)

0.34 (0.30–0.38)

 1950–1959

14,384

354 (17.0)

0.11 (0.09–0.12)

0.11 (0.09–0.12)

0.15 (0.13–0.18)

 1960–1969

29,072

340 (16.3)

0.05 (0.04–0.06)

0.05 (0.05–0.06)

0.10 (0.08–0.11)

 1970–1979

31,187

169 (8.1)

0.02 (0.02–0.03)

0.03 (0.02–0.04)

0.06 (0.05–0.09)

 ≥ 1980

5138

16 (0.8)

0.01 (0.01–0.02)

0.02 (0.01–0.03)

0.04 (0.02–0.07)

Sex

 Female

44,394

852 (40.9)

1

 Male

45,864

1232 (59.1)

1.41 (1.29–1.54)

1.61 (1.48–1.77)

1.66 (1.49–1.86)

Level of education

 Junior high school or less

10,904

982 (47.1)

1

 Senior high school

38,920

691 (33.2)

0.20 (0.18–0.22)

0.81 (0.72–0.92)

 University or higher

40,434

411 (19.7)

0.11 (0.10–0.13)

0.61 (0.53–0.71)

Marital status

 Never married

19,535

128 (6.1)

1

 Married/cohabiting

65,266

1554 (74.6)

3.76 (3.14–4.50)

0.87 (0.70–1.08)

 Other^†

5457

402 (19.3)

11.80 (9.67–14.39)

1.22 (0.96–1.55)

Smoking status

 Never

65,234

1314 (63.1)

1

 Current

20,411

596 (28.6)

1.42 (1.29–1.57)

1.42 (1.27–1.58)

 Former

4613

174 (8.4)

1.91 (1.63–2.23)

1.18 (1.00-1.40)

Alcohol consumption

 None/Occasional

75,324

1574 (75.5)

1

 ≥ 1/week

13,184

400 (19.2)

1.46 (1.31–1.63)

1.06 (0.94–1.19)

 Former

1750

110 (5.3)

2.99 (2.47–3.63)

1.27 (1.04–1.56)

Fruit and Vegetable intake

 < 3 serves/day

27,745

647 (31.1)

1

 3–4 serves/day

49,734

1122 (53.8)

0.98 (0.89–1.08)

0.91 (0.82-1.00)

 ≥ 5 serves/day

12,779

315 (15.1)

1.09 (0.95–1.24)

0.95 (0.83–1.09)

Baseline LTPA (MET-h/week)

 < 1

4758

176 (8.5)

1

 1-7.49

56,069

1063 (51.0)

0.68 (0.58–0.80)

1.02 (0.86–1.20)

 7.5-14.99

13,887

441 (21.2)

1.14 (0.95–1.35)

0.91 (0.76–1.09)

 ≥ 15

15,544

404 (19.4)

0.92 (0.77–1.10)

0.81 (0.68–0.97)

Intensity of occupational PA

 Light

60,828

1326 (63.6)

1

 Moderate

22,094

492 (23.6)

1.03 (0.93–1.14)

0.88 (0.79–0.98)

 Heavy

7336

266 (12.8)

1.68 (1.47–1.92)

0.96 (0.84–1.11)

Charlson comorbidity index

 0

17,286

69 (3.3)

1

 1

22,532

95 (4.6)

1.06 (0.78–1.44)

0.88 (0.65–1.20)

 ≥2

50,440

1920 (92.1)

9.57 (7.53–12.17)

3.83 (3.00-4.90)