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Fig. 2 | BMC Public Health

Fig. 2

From: Exploring different modelling approaches to forecast the community acute respiratory infections burden in children: an Italian epidemiological time series study

Fig. 2

Forecast assessment (a-c) and estimation (b-d) of the ARI monthly-IRx1000 person-day, seasons 2010–2023. *, Error Trend and Seasonality; **, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors and Trend and Seasonal components; Series contains original data with the pandemic years forecasted with an ETS model; Fitted Train and Fitted Test are referred to the parameters estimation and validation, respectively; Fitted overall are the results of the validated models application; Forecast and the correspondent 95% confidence interval explain the current epidemiological season prevision. Abbreviations: ARI, Acute Respiratory Infection; IR, Incidence Rate

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